The 2016 Republican nomination race was a much more crowded affair, however the New Hampshire major that 12 months can nonetheless inform us one thing about tonight. Eight years in the past, Trump received with simply 35 p.c of the vote, however he carried most cities and cities within the Granite State as a result of the vote was closely fragmented. (Like in a lot of New England, New Hampshire’s municipalities, not counties, are the extra essential administrative divisions.) General, six candidates received between 7 and 35 p.c statewide, and the next-closest contender was John Kasich, who received solely 16 p.c.
Trying on the 2016 map, the areas that Trump carried with lower than 40 p.c — coloured pink or mild purple — will maintain the important thing to tonight’s end result. That is very true of areas within the south-central to southeast portion of the state, which produced about three-fourths of the _total_ 2016 Republican major vote. We’ll wish to see to what diploma Trump has received over Republicans in these areas — and simply what number of unbiased voters present up, because the polls counsel they’re extra more likely to want Haley.
One key space to look at would be the Seacoast, New Hampshire’s southeastern nook. This a part of the state has many prosperous and highly-educated cities the place Kasich ran simply behind Trump, resembling Portsmouth and Stratham. To have any probability of an upset, Haley might want to carry out strongly right here, and hope that the area’s Democratic-leaning independents resolve to take part within the GOP major (a lot of the world is strongly Democratic). Haley would additionally want to carry down Trump’s margins in essentially the most vote-rich a part of the state, the south-central Merrimack Valley, which incorporates New Hampshire’s two largest cities — Manchester and Nashua — whereas additionally making inroads in highly-educated cities in the identical neighborhood, resembling Bedford and Amherst. On the identical time, the southeastern a part of this area was far more strongly pro-Trump in 2016, so the diploma to which he can run up the rating in locations like Salem will probably be essential.
Shifting barely north, the capital of Harmony is solidly Democratic, however it nonetheless solid the third-most GOP major votes after Manchester and Nashua in 2016. Trump received lower than 30 p.c there, so it’s one other must-watch spot. To the northwest, the areas the place we’d largely count on Haley to win — and she or he must win large — are highly-educated areas alongside the Connecticut River (the Vermont border) resembling Lebanon and Hanover (dwelling to Dartmouth School), which Kasich carried eight years in the past.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
