By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Joyful Friday the thirteenth to those that observe. –lambert
Chook Tune of the Day
Home Wren (Northern), 6681 Leaches Crossing Rd, Avoca, Wisconsin, United States. “With Frequent Yellowthroat, Tune Sparrow, Mourning Dove, RWBL…”
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“Colorado choose strikes down Trump’s try to toss a lawsuit in search of to bar him from 2024 major poll” [Colorado Sun]. “Residents for Duty and Ethics in Washington claims in its lawsuit that placing Trump on the poll in Colorado would violate a provision of the 14th Modification that bars individuals who have “engaged in rebel” towards the Structure from holding workplace…. Trump’s attorneys argued {that a} Colorado regulation defending individuals from being sued over exercising their free speech rights shielded him from the lawsuit, however Colorado District Choose Sarah Wallace mentioned that regulation doesn’t apply on this case…. The trial to find out Trump’s eligibility for the Colorado poll is scheduled to start out Oct. 30.”
Biden Administration
A little bit warfare information, because the scenario is overly risky:
“Israel-Hamas reside: 1000’s flee however no mass exodus after Israeli warning” [Al Jazeera]. “Al Jazeera correspondents report that hundreds have fled to the south, however there seems to be no mass exodus.” • Here’s a helpful map:
“South” is the place the IDF ordered Gazans to flee, that means south of the Wadi Gaza (map heart), or “Gaza River” (plus wetlands). If I had been a Palestinian, I might be very doubtful about being much more penned up.
“Israeli army says troops make first floor raids into Gaza” [Reuters]. “Israeli army spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari mentioned troops backed by tanks had mounted raids to assault Palestinian rocket crews and search data on the placement of hostages taken by Hamas.”
“Putin cautions Israel towards utilizing ways in Gaza like Nazi siege of Leningrad” [Reuters]. “Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned Israel on Friday towards laying siege to Gaza in the identical approach that Nazi Germany besieged Leningrad, saying a floor offensive there would result in an ‘completely unacceptable’ variety of civilian casualties. Putin mentioned Israel had been subjected to ‘an assault unprecedented in its cruelty’ by Hamas militants, however was responding with merciless strategies of its personal. He mentioned there had been calls even in the US for a blockade of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip on a par with ‘the siege of Leningrad throughout World Warfare Two’. ‘For my part it’s unacceptable,’ Putin informed reporters at a summit in Kyrgyzstan. ‘Greater than 2 million individuals reside there. Removed from all of them help Hamas by the best way, removed from all. However all of them need to undergo, together with girls and kids. After all it’s arduous for anybody to agree with this.’ His criticism of Israel was made all of the extra stinging by the reference to the 1941-44 siege of Leningrad and the implied comparability between Israel and Hitler’s Germany, with potential for inflicting deep offence in Israel. Putin mentioned, nevertheless, that Israel had the suitable to defend itself.” • I for one can be very pleased to (1) uncover any participant who’s agreement-capable and (2) think about a superb consequence (or quite a greater consequence than the established order ante).
“Chuck Schumer will lead a bipartisan journey to Israel this weekend” [Politico]. • Let me understand how that works out….
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“WH Denounces Dems Equating Hamas Assault With Israel’s Response” [RealClearPolitics]. “On Tuesday, the White Home condemned “repugnant” and “disgraceful” feedback from members of Congress equating the terrorist assault by Hamas with earlier actions taken by Israel. Notably, this rebuttal applies to Democratic Reps. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Cori Bush of Missouri…. This was a continuation of a message the president pressured straight moments earlier within the East Room of the White Home. Flanked by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Biden mentioned forcefully, ‘Like each nation on the earth, Israel has the suitable to reply, certainly has an obligation to reply, to those vicious assaults.’” • Good to see Biden being “forceful.” That ought to deliver him a bit bump.
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
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“Donald Trump’s Israeli Warfare Perception” [Wall Street Journal]. The total quote: “‘Two nights in the past I learn all of Biden’s safety individuals, are you able to think about, nationwide protection individuals,’ Mr. Trump mentioned Wednesday evening in West Palm Seashore. ‘And so they mentioned ‘Gee, I hope Hezbollah doesn’t assault from the north. As a result of that’s essentially the most susceptible spot.’ And I mentioned, wait a minute, you realize Hezbollah could be very good. They’re all very good. The press doesn’t like after they say, you realize. I mentioned that President Xi of China, 1.4 billion individuals, he controls it with an iron fist. I mentioned he’s a really good man. They killed me the following day. I mentioned he was good. What am I gonna say?’” • Trump being Trump. Democrat aghastitude as a result of demon figures are demons ffs (and naturally solely Democrats are good. That’s why they’re operating Joe Biden).
“Trump, in West Palm Seashore, tells DeSantis: ‘I can always remember.’ And neglect about 2028, too.” [Palm Beach Post]. “‘I feel he blew it for in 4 years. You by no means know what’s going to occur, however in ’28, I don’t see it taking place,’ Trump mentioned to a crowd of supporters. “I can always remember as a result of that’s such nice disloyalty.’ Trump’s taunts got here throughout a present of political power with hundreds gathered in West Palm Seashore for a gathering of a fan membership created greater than 5 years expressly for him throughout his presidency. It was a possibility for Trump to reveal his enduring reputation in his house county and DeSantis’ house state. The Trump trustworthy didn’t disappoint by displaying up in numbers massive sufficient to fill the cavernous Palm Seashore County Conference Middle.”
“Trump legal professionals declare particular counsel seeks pre-election conviction in labeled paperwork case ‘regardless of the associated fee’” [South Florida Sun-Sentinel]. “‘The truth that they proceed to contend that it’s acceptable and never a violation of President Trump’s due course of rights to push ahead with back-to-back multi-month trials in numerous districts with wholly completely different details — over a defendant’s objection — reveals a central fact about these instances,’ the protection legal professionals wrote. ‘The particular counsel’s workplace is engaged in a reckless effort to attempt to get hold of a conviction of President Trump previous to the 2024 election, regardless of the associated fee.’ ‘The Court docket mustn’t allow the usage of the felony justice course of towards that finish,’ the legal professionals added. The legal professionals repeated their earlier assertions that the federal government has not adopted via on its obligations to make all of the labeled paperwork accessible and out there for inspection by the protection. The particular counsel’s prosecutors dispute that assertion, saying they’ve made safe amenities out there to evaluation the supplies.”
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“White Home knew Biden had his personal doc downside earlier than siccing FBI on Trump, new timeline reveals” [Just the News]. “Comer disclosed in a letter to White Home Counsel Edward Siskel that Congress has now confirmed that Biden’s aides knew as early as March 2021 that the present president had stored authorities paperwork at his insecure college suppose tank workplace in Washington D.C. They might later be decided to comprise labeled data. A 12 months later – with the general public unaware of Biden’s doc predicament – the Biden White Home instructed the Nationwide Archives to present the FBI entry to fifteen bins of presidency memos —some labeled — that Trump had positioned in his Florida house, kicking a felony probe of the forty fifth president into excessive gear.” And: “In accordance with the timeline in Chairman Comer’s letter, Biden White Home workers first visited the Penn Biden Middle—a think-tank on the College of Pennsylvania—to ‘take stock of President Biden’s paperwork and supplies,’ in March of 2021, greater than a 12 months earlier than President Biden’s legal professionals claimed that ‘what seem[ed] to be Obama-Biden Administration information, together with a small variety of paperwork with labeled markings’ had been first found on the heart on November 2, 2022.” • Not earthshaking, however drip-drip-drip….
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“Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis duke it out for donors — however it might not matter towards Trump” [NBC]. “As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley jockey to be the highest different to former President Donald Trump within the Republican presidential primaries, their campaigns will courtroom a consortium of megadonors at a closed-door convention Friday in Dallas…. And even successful the donor jackpot may not make a lot of a distinction. Many Republicans have concluded that more money would make little distinction in efforts to topple Trump. Between his marketing campaign and the tremendous PAC By no means Again Down, DeSantis has collected greater than $150 million. After it spent $4 million testing anti-Trump advertisements in Iowa, the Win it Again PAC — which has ties to the conservative Membership for Development — discovered it might do restricted harm, with ‘diminishing returns,’ to Trump.” Wowsers. And these guys are used to purchasing no matter they need. New expertise for them! Extra: “As of final week, DeSantis’ marketing campaign had simply $5 million within the financial institution for the primaries, a small quantity for somebody who entered the race in Might with expectations that he can be the sphere’s greatest fundraiser by far. A DeSantis donor mentioned it’s a ‘big downside.’ Haley’s marketing campaign reported having $9 million out there for major season spending.” • Ouch!
“Ron DeSantis hits new low in North Carolina polling” [Florida Politics]. “The Florida Governor has simply 12% help within the ballot of 600 seemingly Republican Main voters, which was carried out Oct. 8 and Oct. 9. That places him 40 factors behind Donald Trump’s 52%, and in a statistical tie with Nikki Haley’s 11% given the ballot’s margin of error of +/- 3.88 share factors. A further 12% of respondents had been undecided, with Vivek Ramaswamy’s 5% good for fourth place amongst precise candidates. The pollster calls the outcomes a ‘runaway’ for Trump.”
“A billionaire-backed suppose tank retains sabotaging Florida employees. Extra assaults are coming.” [Jason Garcia, Seeking Rents]. “Dick Uihlein, the Midwestern billionaire and Republican megadonor who’s the biggest funder of the Basis for Authorities Accountability. Uihlein, an inheritor to the Schlitz brewing fortune and the founding father of the delivery provide firm Uline, has been superb to Ron DeSantis Marketing campaign-finance filings present that Uihlein has given greater than $2.4 million to DeSantis over the previous 5 years — together with $1.4 million to a state political committee that DeSantis used to regulate and one other $1 million to a federal tremendous PAC now financing his marketing campaign for president. Uihlein’s spouse, Liz Uihlein, has given DeSanits one other $1.5 million. And Ron DeSantis has been superb to Dick Uihlein and his Basis for Authorities Accountability. Emails, schedules and lobbying information present that senior DeSantis aides have labored intently with FGA staffers whereas concurrently cultivating Uihlein with perks like invites to non-public occasions on the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee….. With Uihlein’s FGA cheering him on and offering public-relations cowl, DeSantis has slashed unemployment funds to laid-off employees. He has made it more durable for public-sector workers to band collectively in unions and collectively cut price for higher pay and advantages. And he has refused to increase Medicaid to an estimated 800,000 Floridians who don’t have medical health insurance — and is now presiding over a very callous purge of the state’s post-pandemic Medicaid rolls. The FGA is pushing for extra. Information present it been engaged on proposals that would deny meals stamps to extra Floridians, evict some individuals from inexpensive housing, lock full-time school college students into near-full-time jobs, and permit authorities contractors to pay their workers poorer wages.” • Not good individuals in any respect.
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“How a Grinnell fender-bender fueled a deceptive marketing campaign narrative” [Bleeding Heartland]. A scholar jourrnalist is an eye-witness to Ramaswamy’s go to to Grinnell. “His interactions with college students appeared to observe a formulation. His objective was to evoke a response, usually by remaining unemotional and uncaring whereas discussing necessary matters to college students. Whether or not it was LGBTQ+ activists, public college supporters, or Ukrainian college students, he knew the right way to solicit visceral responses, rigorously documented by marketing campaign staffers recording each interplay from a number of digital camera angles. With content material in hand, he might take to social media, mischaracterizing interactions and ignoring details.” Which he did. And: “With that in thoughts, I mustn’t have been stunned when Ramaswamy and his marketing campaign put forth a transparent lie concerning the automotive accident that occurred previous to the occasion in Grinnell on Thursday, October 5. The accident happened when a driver backed out of her parking spot, by the way contacting a marketing campaign car parked throughout the road. The marketing campaign claimed that: (1) the incident was intentional, (2) the scholar was affiliated with a bunch of protesters, and (3) the motive force fled the scene. In actuality, the scenario was vastly completely different. The driving force was clearly distracted by Ramaswamy’s arrival and didn’t look behind her or in her rear-view mirror. As she backed out, she scraped her proper bumper on the left bumper of the marketing campaign automotive [diagram given]. It was obvious that: (1) the accident was unintentional, (2) the motive force didn’t realize it was Ramaswamy’s automotive, (3) she was unaffiliated with protesters, and (4) she remained on the scene to speak with police. And but, the media ran with the marketing campaign’s story, refusing to take the time to confirm the account or speak to the concerned events. Greater than something, I see this episode as a reminder that nationwide media will select pace over accuracy far too usually. If native reporters had not been current, the reality of the scenario could not have come to mild.” And this little lagniappe: “But, because the Grinnell Police Chief informed me throughout my investigation into Ramaswamy’s unlawful parking, ‘Information are good.’ Certainly they’re.” • Do libertarians imagine that parking may even be unlawful?
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“RNC’s Election Integrity Division Will get To Work” [RealClearPolitics]. “On the similar time, within the years since 2020 the concerted efforts of Democrats, left-leaning activists, and main company media to dismiss the dangers posed by mail-in balloting and different points within the 2020 election have confirmed deceptive in key respects. Typical of this effort was the Brookings Establishment, which asserted in 2020 that ‘there isn’t a proof that mail ballots enhance electoral fraud.’ That is despite the truth that earlier reviews by The New York Occasions and Jimmy Carter, in addition to a joint evaluation by Cal Tech and M.I.T., all affirmed that mail-in ballots are extra inclined to fraud. Connecticut authorities are presently recommending felony prices towards marketing campaign employees for the mayor of Bridgeport – the biggest metropolis within the state – over potential fraud involving mail-in ballots in that metropolis’s 2019 Democratic major election. Now native authorities are investigating once more after fellow Democrats have produced a video apparently displaying the identical mayor’s marketing campaign fraudulently stuffing poll bins to narrowly win one other major election final month. Because of this, questions concerning the radical alteration of how People voted in 2020 on account of COVID and aggressive Democratic Occasion litigation have by no means been settled, and Republican voters stay suspicious.”
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Republican Funhouse
“Concern and loathing grips the Home GOP” [Politico]. “The Home GOP has entered an angrier and extra bewildered part in its management disaster. The fractious Republican convention has rejected a second speaker hopeful in eight days — this time, Kevin McCarthy’s longtime inheritor obvious, Steve Scalise. Whereas Republicans look like turning subsequent to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), some are already airing open doubts that Jordan can pull off what the bulk chief couldn’t. The lesson Republicans have discovered within the frenetic week since McCarthy’s fall: They don’t have any clear alternative for chief who can unite their ranks — regardless of how lengthy this drags out and their chamber of Congress is paralyzed. It’s not simply GOP centrists sparring with the arduous proper. It’s not simply McCarthy loyalists secretly fuming at Scalise or his allies. There’s mounting anger throughout your complete convention that no GOP speaker candidate, together with Jordan, seems in a position to prevail underneath the present margins.” • Jordan, a Republican speaker wannabe wrestling with the identical points as one-time speaker Denny Hastert. Certainly it’s doable to do higher?
“Bipartisan speak grows as GOP fails to discover a speaker” [Axios]. “Lawmakers in each events are expressing rising openness, each in public and in non-public, to a bipartisan deal to elect a Home speaker as Republicans are regularly thwarted of their efforts to do it alone With Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise (R-La.) withdrawing regardless of successful his celebration’s nomination, some Republicans are involved no person can win the job with simply GOP votes. “There’s a sentiment constructing round [a bipartisan deal] amongst Democrats and Republicans,” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), a member of Democratic management who represents a swing district, informed Axios….” • How about Oprah?
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“Wisconsin Republicans Stroll Again Efforts to Impeach Newly Elected State Supreme Court docket Justice Protasiewicz” [Democracy Docket]. ”
On Thursday, Oct. 12, Wisconsin Meeting Speaker Robin Vos (R) and fellow Republicans indicated that they might stroll again their impeachment campaign towards liberal state Supreme Court docket Justice Janet Protasiewicz. This comes after final week when former Wisconsin Supreme Court docket Justice David Prosser suggested Vos that there ought to be ‘no effort to question’ Protasiewicz over her refusal to recuse herself from an ongoing authorized problem to the state’s legislative maps. At present, in what seems to be an try to retract his threats, Vos clarified that any impeachment inquiries going ahead would relaxation on what the justice does whereas ‘in workplace.’”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Occasion is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Occasion fails to control, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the aptitude to control. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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“Fetterman: America ‘not sending their greatest and brightest’ to Congress” [The Hill]. “Sen. John Fetterman mentioned Wednesday that America ‘is just not sending their greatest and brightest’ to signify them in Congress. ‘Generally you actually simply can’t imagine like, these persons are making the choices which might be figuring out the federal government right here. It’s really scary, the Pennsylvania Democrat mentioned throughout an look on “The Late Present with Stephen Colbert…. ‘[Y]ou have some very much less gifted varieties of individuals there which might be keen to close down the federal government simply as rating factors on Fox [News],” Fetterman mentioned. As Home Republicans wrestle to elect a brand new Speaker after eradicating Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) earlier this month, Colbert requested if senators ‘really feel fairly good proper now that they’re not essentially the most dysfunctional a part of the federal government?’ ‘Properly it’s a low bar, actually,’ Fetterman replied. ‘I simply need everyone to understand simply how really dysfunctional it truly is,’ the 54-year-old lawmaker continued. ‘And I at all times inform individuals, don’t fear, please don’t fear. It’s a lot worse than you suppose.’” • Individuals are dunking on Fetterman for this, but when I fulfilled a life-long dream, made it to the Senate, and found what it was like, I’d be depressed, too. Now, this must be the usual “Republicans are silly, we’re good” trope that Democrats deploy each time they’re respiratory or waking, however Fetterman actually doesn’t go there; “rating factors on Fox” is fairly weak, in any case I’ve heard (undecided if that is true now) that FOX is blaring all over the place on the Capitol. Additionally, bear in mind the research I posted awhile again that mentioned that the one persona kind that assessed danger precisely was the depressive?
“The Democrats’ Immigration Drawback” [Ruy Teixeira, the Liberal Patriot]. “[T]his inflow has now unfold throughout the nation together with to various very blue cities and states who are actually complaining loudly concerning the pressure on their sources, regardless of their professed insurance policies of being ‘sanctuaries’ [no, not like that!] for such unlawful entrants. Half of the lodge rooms in New York Metropolis are actually occupied by these migrants and 600 extra are arriving daily within the metropolis. Related tales of being fully overwhelmed by the migrant inflow abound throughout the nation… In brief, the scenario is uncontrolled—precisely what most voters don’t need and they’re reacting accordingly…. At this level, Democrats look like hoping that the immigration situation is simply not very salient to voters in 2024 or that different points are a lot extra salient (e.g., abortion) that their big drawback on immigration received’t matter a lot. In what guarantees to be a really shut election towards a possible opponent who shall be very happy to demagogue the problem, this appear to be a really unwise course, if not an outright reward to your opponent.” • “Half of the lodge rooms in New York Metropolis” is a formidable factoid, but it surely additionally comes from New York Mayor Eric Adams, who doesn’t cite to a supply. Certainly Teixeira can do higher than that?
“Crimson or blue, Democrats have grand plans for various voters in your state” [Donna Brazile, The Hill]. “Whereas solely 41 p.c of white voters within the 2020 presidential election solid ballots for Joe Biden based on Roper Public Opinion Analysis, Biden was elected president on the energy of majorities he received amongst different voters. These included 87 p.c of Black voters, 65 p.c of Hispanic voters and 61 p.c of Asian American voters. As well as, Biden received 57 p.c of the feminine vote and 60 p.c of the vote amongst individuals 29 and youthful (in contrast with 45 p.c of the vote amongst these 65 and older).” • Ah, one other classification wrestle!
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Soros Closes Workplaces Throughout $25 Billion Philanthropy Empire” [Bloomberg]. “The $25 billion worldwide community of foundations began by George Soros is shuttering places of work around the globe because it prepares to chop greater than 40% of its workers.” • First SBF, now this!
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with persona modifications therefrom.
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Lambert right here: Again to tape-watching mode. It nonetheless appears to me like the present surge has some methods to run, given how wastewater flattened, with the East Coast up. Let’s wait and see.
Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 2:
Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?
Regional knowledge:
Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
• CDC butchers transition from Biobot to Verily:
I used to be anticipating to offer an up to date PMC C0VID-19 Tracker right now, however Biobot has not up to date their wastewater report.
In some unspecified time in the future, we’ll transition to Verily, however I hoped Biobot would proceed to report a bit longer.
Within the meantime (quickly), I will present some… https://t.co/q3EFNJ29au
— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) October 10, 2023
Why on earth is their a niche in protection? Certainly it could have been doable to transition seamlessly from one wastewater testing firm seamlessly? That is our solely dependable proxy for nation-wide case knowledge. Why, it’s nearly like CDC doesn’t need us to see it! (I’m growing extra on Verily, which appears very high heavy, stuffed with Silicon Valley varieties, however actually hasn’t delivered a lot of something. Additionally, there was a very huge layoff lately. I did undergo the chief layer, in search of spooks, however didn’t discover any. (If anyone has any company reviews on Verily, please share or throw over the transom.)
Variants
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: September 30 is tomorrow, however by no means thoughts that. High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with HV.1 a powerful second, and XBB.1.1.16.6 and FL.1.15.1 trailing. No BA.2.86. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, September 16:
Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities reduce by directors of ailing intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 7:
Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is just not seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 12:
Nonetheless lowering. (New York State is now falling, too.) I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, not less than. September 30:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 9:
-1.0%. Nonetheless dropping, although lower than earlier than. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 7:
Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, September 18:
Again up once more, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:
Now, BA.2.86 for 2 weeks in a row. Bears watching.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,178,704 – 1,178,638 = 66 (66 * 365 = 24,090 deaths per 12 months, right now’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of dying and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, October 13:
Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity right now.
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At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 29 Concern (earlier shut: 35 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 25 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 11 at 1:42:38 PM ET.
The Gallery
“Scientists pry a secret from the ‘Mona Lisa’ about how Leonardo painted the masterpiece” [Associated Press]. “Utilizing X-rays to look into the chemical construction of a tiny speck of the celebrated murals, scientists have gained new perception into the methods that Leonardo da Vinci used to color his groundbreaking portrait of the girl with the exquisitely enigmatic smile. The analysis, printed Wednesday within the Journal of the American Chemical Society, means that the famously curious, discovered and ingenious Italian Renaissance grasp could have been in a very experimental temper when he set to work on the ‘Mona Lisa’ early within the sixteenth century. The oil-paint recipe that Leonardo used as his base layer to arrange the panel of poplar wooden seems to have been completely different for the ‘Mona Lisa,’ with its personal distinctive chemical signature, the group of scientists and artwork historians in France and Britain found. ‘He was somebody who cherished to experiment, and every of his work is totally completely different technically,’ mentioned Victor Gonzalez, the research’s lead creator and a chemist at France’s high analysis physique, the CNRS. …. Particularly, the researchers discovered a uncommon compound, plumbonacrite, in Leonardo’s first layer of paint. … Discovering plumbonacrite within the ‘Mona Lisa’ attests “to Leonardo’s spirit of passionate and fixed experimentation as a painter – it’s what renders him timeless and trendy,” [Carmen Bambach, a specialist in Italian art and curator at New York’s Metropolitan Museum of Art’ said by email.” • Surely “timeless and modern” is a contradiction in terms?
Class Warfare
“Kaiser Permanente, Unions Reach Deal on New Contracts” [Wall Street Journal]. “Unions and the well being system introduced the deal Friday morning, after the primary full day of bargaining following a strike by greater than 75,000 Kaiser nurses, pharmacists and different employees. The strike, which lasted as much as three days, was the biggest on report in healthcare. Neither facet instantly supplied phrases of the tentative settlement. Wages and staffing throughout Kaiser hospitals and clinics had been key points in negotiations. The unions mentioned Kaiser outsourcing was a sticking level. Performing U.S. Labor Secretary Julie Su had joined the negotiations to assist resolve the disputes. Unions warned of a bigger and longer work stoppage in November with out an settlement. ” • There is no such thing as a deal, and there’s no contract, till the union membership voted on it. Why is that this so arduous for “journalists” to know?
Information of the Wired
“The Absolute Minimal Each Software program Developer Should Know About Unicode in 2023 (Nonetheless No Excuses!)” [Tonsky]. • Enjoyable stuff.
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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SR:
SR writes: “Not essentially the most elegant shot. However turmeric glows inexperienced in late afternoon.” A little bit blown out by the setting solar, however fairly a plant!
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Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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