Israel likely to face Hamas resistance “for years to come,” U.S. intelligence assessment says

Israel’s army will “wrestle to neutralize” Hamas’s sprawling underground tunnel techniques and is prone to face “lingering armed resistance” from the militant group “for years to return,” in line with a brand new world menace evaluation compiled by the U.S. intelligence neighborhood.

The danger of escalation of the battle in Gaza, now stretching into its sixth month, additionally “stays excessive,” in line with the unclassified report, which was launched Monday by the Workplace of the Director of Nationwide Intelligence (ODNI). The analysts who drafted it, nevertheless, mentioned neither Iran nor its proxy teams are believed to be looking for direct battle with america.

In accompanying public testimony earlier than the Senate Intelligence Committee on Monday, Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines mentioned the warfare in Gaza had fueled violent acts by terror teams worldwide.  

The disaster “has galvanized violence by a spread of actors world wide and, whereas it’s too early to inform, it’s probably that the Gaza battle can have a generational influence on terrorism,” Haines mentioned. “Each al Qaeda and ISIS, impressed by Hamas, have directed supporters to conduct assaults in opposition to Israeli and U.S. pursuits,” she mentioned.

Haines appeared alongside the heads of 5 main American intelligence companies for an annual listening to on worldwide threats. CIA director William Burns, FBI director Christopher Wray, Brett Holmgren, head of the State Division’s Bureau of Intelligence and Analysis, Nationwide Safety Company director Gen. Timothy Haugh and Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse of the Pentagon’s Protection Intelligence Company additionally testified.

The ODNI evaluation, which represents the collective evaluation of the 18 intelligence companies comprising the U.S. intelligence neighborhood, additionally mentioned the “viability” of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s management and governing coalition “could also be in jeopardy.”

“Mistrust of Netanyahu’s skill to rule has deepened and broadened throughout the general public from its already excessive ranges earlier than the warfare, and we anticipate massive protests demanding his resignation and new elections,” it says. “A special, extra reasonable authorities is a chance.”

President Biden mentioned in a current interview with MSNBC that he believed Netanyahu was “hurting Israel greater than serving to Israel” by waging a army marketing campaign that so far has resulted within the deaths of greater than 30,000 civilians in Gaza, in line with the Gaza Ministry of Well being. In a separate interview with Politico, Netanyahu later known as Mr. Biden’s vital views “flawed,” and mentioned combating might finish inside 4 to 6 weeks.

Burns, who returned Saturday from his eighth journey abroad to carry talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli negotiators, testified Monday {that a} cease-fire was the best solution to enhance the supply of humanitarian assist into Gaza, the place the well being ministry has mentioned at the very least 25 individuals have already died attributable to malnutrition.

A former diplomat who has been tapped by Mr. Biden to guide successive rounds of delicate hostage talks, Burns mentioned a possible three-part settlement — involving the discharge of hostages in return for an outlined variety of Palestinian prisoners and an preliminary six-week cease-fire — remained “on the desk.”

“I do not assume anyone can assure success,” he mentioned. “What I believe you possibly can assure is that the options are worse for harmless civilians in Gaza who’re struggling beneath determined situations, for the hostages and their households who’re struggling, additionally beneath very determined situations, and for all of us.”

Whereas the 40-page, written intelligence evaluation mentioned Iran’s leaders “didn’t orchestrate nor had foreknowledge” of Hamas’s October 7 assault in opposition to Israel — wherein greater than 1,200 Israelis had been killed and greater than 250 had been taken hostage — it famous Tehran was capable of “flex” its proxy community’s army capabilities within the assaults’ aftermath, and would probably stay a menace.

“Whereas Iran will stay cautious to keep away from a direct battle with both Israel or america, it nonetheless enabled scores of militia rocket, missile, and UAV assaults in opposition to U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria; Hizballah exchanges of fireplace with Israel on the north border with Lebanon; and [Houthi] missile and UAV assaults, each on Israel instantly and on worldwide business delivery transiting the Purple Sea,” analysts wrote.

Ending Ukraine assist could possibly be “large and historic mistake”

The annual evaluation additionally warned that Moscow was “benefitting” from uncertainties amongst Western nations about the way forward for army assist to Ukraine, which has seen current losses on the battlefield and, absent a renewed move of help, stands to cede extra floor to Russian forces within the coming weeks.

“Ukraine’s retreat from Avdiivka and their wrestle to stave off additional territorial losses up to now few weeks have uncovered the erosion of Ukraine’s army capabilities with the declining availability of exterior army assist,” Haines informed Senate lawmakers.

Absent an infusion of army help, together with a $60 billion assist bundle that for months has been stalled in Congress, “it’s exhausting to think about how Ukraine will have the ability to preserve the extraordinarily hard-fought advances it has made in opposition to the Russians,” she mentioned, noting current assist the Kremlin had secured from North Korea and Iran.

“With out supplemental help in 2024, you are going to see extra Avdiivkas,” Burns added. “And that, it appears to me, can be an enormous and historic mistake for america.”

Burns, who has traveled 10 occasions to Ukraine as CIA director, mentioned Ukraine would, with the good thing about continued assist, have the ability to maintain its personal on the entrance strains into 2025, thereby attaining a stronger negotiating place.

He additionally warned that the U.S. discontinuing its assist to Ukraine would gasoline doubts amongst allies within the Indo-Pacific and “stoke the ambition” of the Chinese language authorities within the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

The written evaluation warned that Russia’s lack of ability to safe speedy positive aspects in Ukraine “continues to drive issues that Putin may use nuclear weapons,” noting Putin has made earlier public remarks about transferring Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus.

The report additionally famous that the Chinese language authorities had continued supporting Russia’s army marketing campaign by offering the Kremlin with dual-use supplies and weapons parts, noting China’s exports of provides “with potential army use rose greater than threefold since 2022.” Bilateral commerce between Beijing and Moscow exceeded $220 billion in 2023, it mentioned.

The listening to, which historically takes place every year earlier than the intelligence committees of the Senate and Home, affords a uncommon alternative for lawmakers and the general public to listen to instantly from leaders of American intelligence companies, whose budgets and actions are stored largely labeled.

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